The EU heavy-duty CO2 standards: Impact of the COVID-19 crisis and market dynamics on baseline emissions

The European Union CO2 emission performance standards for heavy-duty vehicles mandate fleet-wide average emission reductions of 15% in 2025 and 30% in 2030 for new vehicles compared to the values reported by manufacturers in the baselining period, which ran from July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020. In 2022, a review of the regulation will validate baseline CO2 emissions reported by manufacturers. This paper presents an analysis of the truck market in the EU for 2020 in order to identify which factors influenced the baseline and how they affected it. This entails assessing the market composition during the baselining period in terms of vehicle segments and manufacturers, and comparing it with historical data. The analysis also estimates the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on the baseline, although this can only be done with a limited degree of certainty.