Drivers and disruptors shaping the future of agriculture and the food system in LAC: Climate change and trade tensions

Agri-food production remains vital to the economies in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Food systems are rapidly changing and are driven by income growth, (urban) population growth, shifts in dietary preferences, and agricultural productivity growth. Food systems are also under threat from disrupters like climate change and distorting policies (including trade wars). This paper makes two quantitative, forward-looking assessments for the future of food and agriculture in the LAC region. The first focuses on the long-term prospects - given projected pathways for the main drivers and under the threat of climate change. The second focuses on current vulnerability of LACs agri-food system to short-term disrupters with special reference to impacts of global trade wars and the prospects for reducing that vulnerability.