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Identifying future disease hot spots: infectious disease vulnerability index

The report presents the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index as a method for identifying the most vulnerable countries to such outbreaks so that they might be higher priorities for technical and funding support. The index was designed to help inform decision making for the mitigation of potential outbreaks. Key findings from the assessment include a heat map reflecting normed scores for all countries worldwide with regard to their vulnerability to infectious disease outbreaks and a ranked list of countries based on their vulnerability. It concludes that a broad range of factors collectively shapes a country's resilience to infectious diseases, rather than a single factor or domain. The report encourages policymakers to focus on the most vulnerable countries, with an eye toward a potential “disease belt” in the Sahel region, which emerged from the data. It notes that the vulnerability score for several countries was better than what would have been predicted on the basis of economic indicators alone. This suggests that low-income countries can overcome economic challenges and become more resilient to public health disasters.

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