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Historical prediction modeling approach for estimating long-term concentrations of PM2.5 in cohort studies before the 1999 implementation of widespread monitoring

Recent cohort studies have used exposure prediction models to estimate the association between long-term residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and health. Because these prediction models rely on PM2.5 monitoring data, predictions for times before extensive spatial monitoring present a challenge to understanding long-term exposure effects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Federal Reference Method (FRM) network for PM2.5 was established in 1999. The researchers evaluated a novel statistical approach to produce high-quality exposure predictions from 1980 through 2010 in the continental United States for epidemiological applications.

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