The impact of climate change on food calorie production and nutritional poverty: evidence from Kenya

There is a growing body of literature on the impact of climate change in Africa. Most studies have concentrated on the impact of climate change on crop and livestock productivity, while other studies have assessed adaptation to climate change. This study contributes to the literature by investigating how extreme climate events affect kilocalorie production and thus household food and nutrition security and poverty. While most of the existing studies focus on the effects of climate variables on agricultural production, this study contributes to the limited literature on the effects of climate on food security and the role of climate adaptation in household nutrition in Kenya . This study goes beyond traditional studies of climate change to investigate the effect of climate variables (peak month temperatures and precipitation, as well as extreme climate events measured through very low and very high standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI) on kilocalorie production and nutritional poverty. In addition, most studies on the impact of climate change have used cross-sectional data, mainly using Ricardian models. This study uses panel data to estimate the effect of climate change on kilocalories produced and on the probability of being food and nutrition secure. Because smallholder farmers in Kenya rely on their own production for daily consumption, they derive most of their caloric intake from this source. Any shortfall in kilocalorie production therefore has important implications for food and nutritional security.