Estimating the fuel efficiency technology potential of heavy-duty trucks in major markets around the world

The Global Fuel Economy Initiative has launched a ground-breaking new report which provides a first estimate for the fuel efficiency potential of HDVs in different markets. The study, led by GFEI partner the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) models potential improvements in fuel efficiency over the 2020 to 2040 timeframe in order to determine the potential for improvement in the EU, US, Brazil, India, and China. It does this by applying ‘technology packages’ that represent the most advanced applicable technologies that have been either commercialized or demonstrated to be commercially available by 2030, to a baseline tractor-trailer and a representative rigid delivery truck. Three possible emission and fuel consumption reduction scenarios are developed to quantify the range of possible benefits over time – ‘incremental’, ‘moderate’ and ‘accelerated’. The study finds that full deployment of heavy-duty vehicle efficiency technology would result in energy savings of close to 9 million barrels of oil per day in the year 2035 in the accelerated scenario. This would be equivalent to almost 2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions avoided per year in 2035. China and India each represent about one quarter of these potential long-term oil savings and climate benefits due to their growing freight activity. These two markets are followed by the US, Europe, and Brazil in terms of having the most potential energy and carbon savings from realizing their technology potential.